Holiday Hustle Strategy thread

Mooboy and Broke

Is it okay that I join in?
I am following this discussion of yours and enjoying it….I like when it gets a little nerdy

What I get is that Mooboy seems to maybe get more drops producing Yellow Reindeers (+ using CR and buffs) versus refined carnations…and doing it because there also are other benefits connected to that (selling poo and animals). I am really looking forward to see the result on drops on your next harvest Mooboy - to see if that is actually the case

And you are both talking about NOT leaving your farm idle… nothing new really but shown by examples.

Broke you have given the examples on how to spend a certain time on 2 different farms showing very clearly that one of them obviously will get more drops because it farms more efficiently - not leaving the fields idle. That may even be more important than what you grow/produce if you are not able to harvest on time anyway…but I don't know that for sure...

I am done with this event but I keep on feeding the bears (wish the fox and the penguin would stay away) I have used up all the extra event crops I accidentally grew and I now grow more along the way. My plan is at this point to use up every single drop I get and try to get as many as possible.

I am thinking about growing refined roses combined with the CR (flower) on 1*1 plots using water and CAC. I can harvest 3 times during approximately 24 hours - I don’t know if that will be better than carnations or yellow Reindeer. I do count out what I can gain by the different productions, like poo and animals to sell. I am only growing crops at this time and will continue doing that to get the most of my CAC and to be able to grow more event crops along with gathering the drops.

I am making millions selling wheat and I will try to see how many drops I can get within the next hour growing wheat on the meadow only. I will leave my 9 Howies on the field because I harvest every field with Howies to get more drops and then I can compare with what I get from the roses assuming I was able to sit here by the computer and harvest wheat all day or at least during the same time it takes for the roses. Just doing this for fun
I will turn on the refinements Early bloomer and water love for wheat and eat an Oatbread. Doing this because I can sell the wheat right away and still make good profit - so I use water growing the wheat and I will harvest on time.

I will be back to let you know how many drops I get during that hour

EDIT ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

My brothers think I am really weird doing this... can you believe that? lol

Well I did 8 rounds of wheat - 64 minutes - with 9 Howies out! NINE! I got ....dadadadadum......drums......dadadadada dum......I really hate to reveal this ehm aaahhh 1 drop haha lol

So what do I make of this? Wheat is definitely a no go! Compared to the roses I harvested in the Glade and yielded 20 drops and 4 Jumbo trees are filling up too. I will have to grow Wheat for the next 21 hours to get the same amount! haha

I really didn't think it would be this bad - not as good as the roses of course but definitely better than this. My fields were harvested right on time - never left idle for 10 seconds! So I better find something else to grow

 

drops from refined roses, with white innocence and fruit cake with harvest and flowers cloud rows.
I used 1680 supergrow and got approx. 1250 drops....
Am doing extra polar bears after the event....

Oh meba, I sympathize with you !!!
​

 

Finished the Christmas event on Christmas... how apropo

 

I want to believe that drops are random but logical thinking and the results gathered over time prevent me from agreeing. Going along with the idea though, I can only go as far as to say that drops are random BUT within a very well defined range. And because of that range, I can compute an average drop rate. Anise was planted and tested here on three fields together and not just one. I began trying to work with only one field and found there was just too much variation to get what I wanted quickly. When switching to a three field analysis, which is used when most of us grow anyway, I was able to get a reasonably accurate drop rate per 1x1 plot. Many wish to believe that drops are random because they cannot explain them. Knowledgeable developers will only laugh at me if I attempt to ague that the drops are random as they know better as they are not random but perhaps within a range. If you understand this then I can give you one last step, you can take it to any forum in the game, defend with confidence, and you will find how quickly the next limitation appears. Let me know.

So I continue this line of thinking only to quickly find that I cannot get the base rate nor can your farm. The reason we cannot get a true base rate to generalize for ALL farms is due to the many variables that we have. Trying to use that same rate on a different farm with different variables is meaningless. And for that reason alone I have chosen not to disclose it.

You can compute a rate on your farm and you will be able to explain the difference between the drop rate of carnations and the drop rate of reindeer stables , within reason, and under a specific set of facts ONLY. Your base rate will be slightly different from mine if we were to do the exact samething due to variable differences in our farms which neither of us can remove or control or isolate them.

Most farmers will find no need to go into such detail. The reason is due to the medium difficulty of the current events. Many are able to complete the events anyway. But as the events get difficult, and we are being primed for it, many will begin to take the generalizable conclusions into their individual strategy. And there are some.

@meba091

I can make some sense avout what you have done with growing wheat and a comparison with the drops provided by roses and a few trees. You provide a great topic.

• A drop rate can be computed based upon 1x1 plot size per growth per minute with no water.
• The base rate will not vary due to water usage nor will the drops change due to water. The drops will change due to the original time which you can influence. We know timely harvesting is significant. So over time, by reducing the time to harvest therefor having more harvests of the same crop available, then you will increase drops for that crop.
• All players do not have 9 Howies and therefor the results obtained are already farm specific. I have no problem with that except the results are not generalizable to the population.
• Roses do have a base time. Yet total growth time itself can be changed due to refinements alone. water alone, Howies along, trophies alone, cloud rows alone .... all kinds of farm or player specific variables.
• You have not mentioned but you do have trophies which are probably maxed out and cannot remove the influence of that variable.
• You sight a single finding based upon the meadow.

******* You mentioned refinements for roses. The refinement reduces the time to harvest, yes, but will not influence the number of drops with or without it. The difference is quite important as events get more difficult. A rose refinement will reduce the time to harvest, this reduction will provide the same drops but in a lessor amount of time, one can harvest ore frequently and thus increase the number of drops per time period during the event. This is where refinements become a factor. The refinement investment with proper understanding and use can be quite beneficial.

Another way to explain is that if one is able to produce a 12 hour crop in 9 hours then one should do that rather than producing a 12 hour crop in 12 hours. <------- generalizable to all farms and you may prove it to yourself using your own farm specifics and variables.

Note: SG reduces time and if harvests when complete one will receive the drop benefits earlier. This is how BP has chosen to make SG a revenue source!

Of course, oat bread used with wheat growth will not increase drops but will increase crop output which if sold will increase farm revenue.

 

Meba091 you are welcome to join weather we are fairly Nerdy Farmers lol as I always try use different methods to boost drops as Broke says it seems pointless to grow Junk just to get those Needy Drops. So I though of Reindeer Farming as I can get Reindeers down to either 9 Hours 20 mins or 8 Hours and 45 Mins as you quiet rightly said that we can make CC this way selling Manure and Reindeers so therefore it is not a Junk Tactic this way lol

We done often get our Farms Idle, but we always try to keep this as Minimal as possible at times we are unable to access our farms for other reasons I have now completed this Event so now working on Surplus Mulling Spice Bottles to see how many Candy Cane or Candied Apples we can make hardly seem to be worth making any Chocolate Cookies for Me

Meba091 I have done growing Wheat during Events as we can sell wheat for really good CC but it does not help with Drops but only helps making CC ....I just like to add I always use Oat Bread Reaping all those wheat as Gold Buff Slot does give you +1 Wheat combined with CAC makes it produce +3 Wheat only on 1x1 Fields those 9 Howies did not make any impact on Drops growing Wheat really that why i not bother do this for Drop Gains Purely to make lots of CC Yes !!!

I do have wheat Refinement can get wheat using Water taking only 7 Mins, but it quiet cumbersome to Harvest my Farm every 7 mins lol. Only when i got nothing else to do lol

That is super Davidb1yth007 using 1680 Super Grow on Refine Roses using Comfort Fields to over feed those Polar Bears so they never go hungry lol ....

I will be using Supergrow on Refined Carnations, using Comfort Fields and SG Buffs + Cloud Row once i have harvested my Glade

It not worth to put too much Empathise on Posting about Drop Rate as it is so Random from one Farmer to another Farmer even using Crop or Animal Trophies or even using Howie Donuts the Drops can go down aswell as up. We can never be able to Predict how many drops we suppose to be getting that why i not put that info here to mislead anyone but we can try certain methods to increase better drop margins on whatever we harvest from our Fields !!!

Certain Refinement can be quiet beneficial but not all of them, but it Proves that Animal Buffs and Cloud Rows can give produce drops sooner than later compared to Crop Refinements

 

finished event on boxing date.
plant the Baha wonder tree, result is :
not a new tree goft from that series(I plant 11 trees)

I found that I had event crops excess, so, will mill some mulling mice
still not determine to feed the fox or bear

 

What does random mean?

For each tree/stable/crop a percentage is set, this is the chance that the tree/stable/crop will yield a drop. We know the percentage depends on basic maturing time and plot size, there might also be other variables. The percentage can be increased using trophies, howie donuts and other drop boosters (like cloud row bonuses). When you harvest the tree/stable/crop a random number generator is used to determine if the tree/stable/crop yield a drop. In a single harvest you can be lucky and get more drops than the percentage indicates or unlucky and get less, i.e., drops are random. But over time you will get drops in accordance with the set percentage.

Nothing you have said goes against this, so I don't understand why you are arguing. Random does not mean all over the place inexplainable

 

Thanks David! lol

Broke
Thanks for your detailed explanation!

I left out some thoughts of mine in my previous post which you so nicely fill in + a few I didn't know about.

• I went for the roses exactly because I can harvest 3 times during 24 hours versus 2 times with carnations. I still don't know if it will yield better drops in total getting an extra harvest on Roses versus Carnations.
• Yes my trophies are maxed out.
• Everything I did regarding wheat was to increase the number of harvests during a specific time and get max result (+ 1) for my farm at the same time.

I decided to try once more growing on all 3 fields. With refinements and water the growing time for wheat is 8 minutes - I don't have all the refinements. I harvested 13 times - pew and I left out the Howies.

​

Main field (196 plots) Meadow (201 plots) Glade (171 plots)
0 0 0
0 0 2
1 0 0
0 0 0
0 1 1
1 1 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 1
0 0 0
0 1 0
0 0 0
1 0 1


I don't know how to do the calculation! I grew wheat for 104 minutes on 568 plots and got 11 drops. What shall I do?

I am sorry about the messy numbers. I have tried to put them right under the fields, but they move them selves when I post - when trying to edit they are right where they are supposed to be

Mooboy

Thanks for your welcome! You may leave out the numbers

I think it is great that you (and Broke) seize more useful opportunities getting drops and at the same time increase the revenue of your farms. We can all benefit from that. Thanks!
I know that wheat is no good at getting drops and the above shows that clearly too. I must admit though that I thought it would be a little better than it turned out to be. The Howies was of no use at all in this case lol. I hardly ever grow wheat as it normally is so cheap on my mkt so I buy the cheapest and hold it till it is called for and then sell. I have made millions during this event.

I am still curious about the drops on the reindeer

 

Completed the event, here is what I got from the random gifts:

• 252k CC
• 208k EP
• 179k BEP
• 1 golden banana
• 18 PF
• 55 SG
• 55 Suzy's super grow
• 13 turbo mulch
• 2 XXL toolboxes
• 1 wonder stable
• 4 wonder trees
• 0 CAC
• 13 valentines pot
• 7 pinkie pie pie
• 2 1hr coupons
• 2 3hr coupons
• 1 12hr coupon
• 0 48hr coupons
• 0 items

A bit disappointed not to get any extra items, and would have liked a few more coupons and wonder trees/stables. Apart from that I am happy.

 

Just to add my 2 cents -- in no way do these tests constitute a true test of randomness. Random means variability, not a steady rate.

To get a real test, you would have to run it many times.
Technically, nothing here can be random. It will be an algorithm that will approximate radomness, but all that really matters for us and the game is that it is unpredictable.

It is highly likely that each statistic is based on the normal curve or a slight variation. That would lead to heavily consistent results over many drops, but still would mean a lot of people would see differences, particularly when, as broke mentioned above, there are so many variations with different stalls, trees, crops, etc.

 

@-Mir85-
You asked or state: "what does random mean?" Random as defined by Merriman-Webster dictionary means: without definite aim, direction, rule, or method . You state that for each stable/tree/crop a percentage is set ...... Ridiculous to assume a developer would dream of doing such a thing in this day and age and game with hundreds of types of stable and crops and trees. This I unreasonable to do although it can be done but highly unlikely.

Say they did...... Then what is the percentage based upon? There is some logic behind what appears to you as luck. My aim in this strategy development is to reduce what many will dismiss as luck and turn this into skill. (I do have another alternative but I elected not to go down that path.)

What is the percentage you mention most likely based upon as it definitely is based upon something?
Answer: This is a time management game with definite time set so logically the rate is based upon time!

Realize that and I can work with you. If not, I cannot assist you any further with this method but I will consider any method one wishes to present.

You give a list of gifts too. Congratulations. I have no earthy idea of where to begin trying to determine the likelihood of receiving any particular gift. And I hate to admit it. Right off I can tell you I received several more wonder stables, maybe 2 more wonder trees, 2 or 3 CAC, far less pinkie pie, and about half the number of valentines pots.

@meba091
Based on the data presented from your work I can assist you. I'll give you some general information now but will contact you with igm and assist you with a closer base rate determination which you may consider in any event strategy. I am trying to answer the following question:

If Meba were to plant wheat on all three fields a single time then how many drops should she expect to receive? (I will be satisfied with an answer of -1 to +1 of the actual total received.)

With only visual analysis I say you can expect a single drop from every 568 plots of wheat with your wheat refinement, water use, and trophies. This estimate will be within the range of -1 and +1 drops received. Time is the underlying factor in order to determine a more accurate rate for application in other areas of your farm.

*******My answer of one is correct 100% of the time with my desirable -1 to +1 range. <---------------------------
If I said -0- I would be correct 69% of the time.
If I said 2 I would be correct 54% of the time.
If I said 3 I would be correct 23% of the time.
If I said 4 I would be correct 0% of the time.

So 100% based upon sight only. HOWEVER we cannot take any rate determined here and apply it to any other crop where you may not have a refinement just yet, The reason is because the rate I see is distorted by:

• refinement usage (which could be eliminated with further tests removing it)
• trophies with LL unlocked (we are not able to isolate the effect now because we cannot remove it so we must live with it in all forms of analysis knowing that the end result includes this variable at 30%) No problem! This alone does not prevent a base rate determination and applied to the rest of your farm for strategy usage. AND this rate may indeed be generalized to the whole population in the game. (Need to think about that a little more though.) And this is quite reasonable considering this type of analysis for strategy inclusion would be done by advanced players anyway who definitely know to maximize trophies.
• Efficient harvesting during the time period (Ideally I would like to remove the variable without mathematically attempting to do so. One a base is determined then I can use it everywhere.)

Look for an igm soon regarding this.

What each of us desires most is an efficient event strategy based upon our RL and nothing more. I can say something with confidence regarding the comparison of Mooboy's farm and mine in regards to efficiency. A given is the more efficient one has choices to operate under the easier drops will be obtained. Mooboy's farm is far more efficient than my farm. He has invested in areas where I simply have not. I am very happy for him and applaud him.

Here is the most current example of efficiency and the benefits of such: Mooboy is finished with the even now. I know we both thoroughly understand the basics and apply them with each of our separate strategies while considering RL. But I am still fighting trying to finish the event! His operation is far more efficient than mine and I know it even though I will easily finish the event. If I were to try and race hi to the finish he would win every single time.

Mooboy, I'm kinda broke ..... but if you'd be so kind as to give me a loan I will consider investing in a few yellow stables or something. I doubt the loan is going to happen though .

@woody
Thank you, your words are brilliant. Right and I agree with you, a single test will not say anything definitive as to randomness. For this reason I run my tests several times but not nearly as many times as I would like.

Again I agree that technically here nothing can be random. And this was the motivation for my strategy work. This is not due to luck. Yes, there is an algorithm that approximates randomness. And because the developers approximate randomness then one can approximate a rate. The one concrete aspect one can begin to work with in all areas is time.

Developers have had results data and events to fine tune the algorithm and we both know it. If they go too far and even attempt to skew too drastically they will only create a problem for themselves within the game that they must get control of.

Yes, I assume a normal curve and keep in mind the possibility of skew from time to time. For this reason I know I will have some results which will not be 100% accurate (outliers) so I am willing to accept a -1 to +1 range of prediction for now. Even doing so I have managed to find outliers which I cannot explain.

Thank you very very much.

 

Lot of very clever people design this game ...in terms of Maths Graphics etc
Just wish the person that dishes out the drops wasn't as tight fisted as scrooge

Don't expect or want easy ... now that would make it boring
Found the key to events for my farm ...BUT with the coming of refined plants etc etc coming into the game ...that has changed
And it will continue to do so with each new thing added...So am Glad you guys tell us ways to use these things ...makes it a bit easier to understand... Much appreciated i enjoy the reading of them

If my maths are correct i only need 124 drops ...HOPEFULLY they are ... maths isn't my strongest subject

 

I was just explaining something, so I don't know what made you think I was seeking your assistance. I certainly am not. Over and out

 

Hello, farmers! I have only 15 candy canes left and grow whatever I need on farm. For those who have trouble with drops: grow the longest-growing plants at night. In the morning you will have pretty good drop from it.

 

As we have been posting about Randomness of Drops can Varies Significantly to Positive Gains or Even Negative Gains as Each Howie Donut suppose to give Up to 5% More in Drops.

I did another Experiment using Comfort Fields 40 in the Glade and 44 in Main Farm, I Activated Super Grow Cloud Row, Eaten Fruit Cake and White Innocents used Refinement Carnations.

Results using 4 Howie Donuts

• The Glade Gave only 40 Mulling Spice Bottles Every Time using 40 Comfort Fields
• The Main Farm Gave only 44 Mulling Spice Bottle Every Time using 44 Comfort Fields

Results without using 4 Howie Donuts

• The Glade Gave 43,44 and 45 Mulling Spice Bottles

I am wondering if BigPoint can explain to me to Why we get more Mulling Spice Bottles without using Howie Donuts using this Method. The Idea of using Howie Donuts suppose to give us a small percentage of Additional Drops. Am i under the Conclusion that Howie Donut is less effective when using Comfort Field as they are more effective on Normal Fields !!! does not make much sense to me here I guess if i am nuking using Super Grow with Comfort Fields i refrain from using Howie Donuts !!!

I am interested to hear how we doing in terms of prizes feeding our Polar Bears, Arctic Fox and Penguin my rewards have been very disappointing so far, Just Curious many of you getting more less same results as me ??

• Penguin Prizes (Not Able to get any Drako Wonder Stables or Sweet Beak)
• Arctic Fox Prizes ( Not Able to get any CAC, 1 x XXL Toolbox, 1 GB or Fruit Fox)
• Polar Bear Prizes (Not Able to get any 2 x CAC, 2 x XXL Toolboxes, 12 Hour Coupon,48 Hour Coupon, 1 GB or Bear Tasty)

I just have to keep Trying Perhaps my Luck will Change will keep trying until This Event Ends Finger Crossed

Broke the only way to Give or Loan Stables is Via Barter and Gift Event as I still got loads of CC as it is Inching towards 400 Million Marker as at same time stocking up Bargains from Markets when i see them too make millions of CC at Right Time

Mir85 I am more or less getting same results as you, just hope have more luck until this Event ends my Conclusion it is not as good as previous Events where we have to donate Milled Event Donations...!!!

 

Can't get any worse can it ...half the time i cannot get out of the main field to go to other fields without refreshing and sometimes the mill wont let me use it ...this is the second day of this and IT sometimes happens in other fields ...it's all i need near the end of an event
And people coming to dinner today

Cannot understand why it works perfectly well all week and the next day it starts doing this

Have finished the event..... Now i will get drops from the fields...when i don't need them

Thank you Farmer Broke ...hope it doesn't happen to you again ...because it's a pain in the proverbial

And A VERY big THANK YOU to all the people that sent drops to me (((((((hugs))))))X

 

Did you expect to get more?

Did you have anything else along the sides ready to harvest? I am asking because I did NOT think it was possible to get more than ONE drop of each obtainable from the same plot.

 

I'm three polar bear gifts from completing the event.
However, this was a very tedious event for me to say the least. Especially during this holiday season when I'm supposed to be with the family and not glued to a computer waiting for milled stuff or crops to be done, resulting my farm was idle for several periods of time (including a two-hour crop overnight!)

It's bad enough that in previous events we had to "give 100 gifts" to those ungrateful creatures. Doing it so 290 times in this event was a real pain... Talking about triple frustration..
And they are really ungrateful nasty creatures because the random casino prizes they brought to me in return were nothing compared to my effort...

Anyway, good luck to all still trying to finish and even better luck to the prizes in return!!

 

Mooboy, Howie gives 5% greater CHANCE of drops which is NOT the same as 5% more drops.

I believe this is 100% correct, meba.

 

@Mooboy
I have never done any work with comfort fields and have nothing. The 43, 44, 45 drops appear to be in line with my results with crops for a single field. I have noticed that when considering field only that there is more variation sometimes. When I consider all plots together with a single harvest my estimate before planting is within the -1 to +1 range. (Therefore I know the results are not random and time is one of only two constants available for use.)

This is exactly why any rate guessed at or mathematically determined will be distorted if attempting to use such in an analysis.
Because if that variable and the word "chance," ALL I am able to conclude is that the drops determined mathematically using time as a base ...... can be better. Drops may even be the same as if not using a Howie due to the word "chance." Drops will not be worse.


@Nellie_Noodles
I am really afraid of your situation happening to me. It has but no as often as it did in the distant past. The problem got to the point where I would not even plan to do entire events. I wish you well.

@meba091
lol ... I need two (2) drops to complete milling. lol I will combine our work and get them easily. From your work I know that I can expect one drop per three field (all plots 1x1's). Carrots have the same time to finish as wheat (10 mins with no water). Believing heavily in the findings based upon a time analysis I will use carrots instead. Water alone will not have an effect on drops under this method.

Due to the rate being a close but not exact estimate I will plan to harvest 3 times at the most. And that should do it!

Have the crops grown and time to mill the last 60 for the penguin. I feel about the same as Arrouquelas about feeding those "ungrateful creatures."