Holiday Hustle Strategy thread

First, sorry, but this is starting to sound a bit like an argument. Let me try to step you both back a tad and offer a little bit of statistics. (truly, it will help.. just bear with me) "Random" is one of those things that has a slightly different "casual" meaning from "technical" meaning. Mathematically, random means chosen/selected without any method or design. Farmer Broke, you gave the "casual" definition. For the purpose of these games, the difference in definitions is not great except for clarity and deciphering. What matters more is that truly random calculations are impossible in real life. What mathematicians do is come very, very close using complicated algorithms. In this case, they would put various factors -- definitely length of time to maturation (of crop,stable, etc), definitely some buff alterations, possibly EP, possibly other factors. into the calculations. We know that they do this separately for each item at least in some cases because they sometimes exclude certain items. They don't necessarily have to redo the entire calculation for every event crop, particularly since they tend to follow specific patterns. Rather, they would use a kind of mathematical template into which they could add event crops. They could easily pipe in other small tweaks, depending on what they wish to accomplish.

From now on, I will use "random" to refer to the mathematical (algorithm approximation) definition. The key is that what we are really looking at is, not straight random, but a kind of stratified random. To illustrate, lets pretend we are aliens trying to find out what the population of Earth is. You could randomly select 100 points and have them all wind up in the ocean. Or, you could wind up with some on land, but only in unpopulated areas. A more intelligent alien is going to note that part of the Earth is ocean, etc and will try to sample within each of these sections. If they select 50 points from the ocean and 50 points from land, they will instantly get a much better representation of Earth's population. AND.... there is still a chance that they will select all plots with no life, will certainly miss a lot of species, etc. I use that silly (but commonly used) example because it is easy to understand. You can instantly see why there might be problems because we, as humans know a fair amount about Earth's population already.

To understand buffs, take that above example and add in a modification. Buffs act as a kind of bias to the variabilities. Without knowing the formula, there are a couple of ways it could act. First, pretend that along with all the above adult aliens, there are a few younger alien scientists who want to try their own hand at sampling. Except.. they have to sneak behind the adult's backs, which they can only do about 5% of the time. So, 5% of the time, they are able to take an extra sample. OR, pretend there is a kind of "life magnet" that will attract extra life near the plot -- except this extra magnet does not work very well, only 1 in 20 tries or 5% of the time. If the magnet works, they get a few extra species. If not.. no extras. Again, these are strictly illustrations. Either would be possible.

The point is that in either case, you only have a CHANCE of more samples.. in our case, a CHANCE of more drops. There is no certainty. Just like the aliens could have gotten all ocean samples, we can get 100 plots with no drops at all. That we don't see this happening is another reason why I say that they are using a kind of stratified random sample. We see some variation, I don't think its as much as we might expect in a 100% purely random sample. (NOTE -- have not done the calculations and am not going to.. just guessing) They might, for example, have a "random, but no less than.." type insertion into the formula OR they could do something entirely different.

If the developers are worth their salt, they will ensure that you cannot truly "jimmy" the data in any real way. This is not that difficult. Also, this is one reason I suspect that they do insert some small variations above and beyond what I described above, precisely to keep us guessing. It would not take much to make small tweaks.

The algorithms that I spoke of are used precisely because, even with as many samples as we can generate here, you will not be able to predict a result. I suspect the developers are familiar enough with statistics (likely true experts) that they will have no problem at all ensuring we are kept guessing, won't be able to really "jimmy" the data.

Even things like using 1 X 1 plots may or may not work, depending on when they place the variations, where in the calculations the buffs are actually applied, etc. Just by switching around which variation they put in where, they can alter the data to some extent.

You referred to the "normal" curve. What you have to remember is that this does not truly apply to each individual plot, rather, its better to think of "curves upon curves". Each particular point will more or less fall no a normal curve. Together, the result is not necessarily a normal curve at all. (see above explanation of stratification, etc.). But that is starting to get into more complication than I want to get into here.

anyway, enough of the real life statistical question. Any of you studying science or math will no doubt recognize some of what I am saying.

Cheers and have a great day!

EDIT: To sum, using longer crops/stalls, etc DOES work. Whether stalls, crops and trees differ is unknown and may vary slightly with each event. From the outset, just the fact that stalls are 4 X 4, trees 1 X 1 and crops variable sizes matters. Whether we are better off with 1 X 1 or 4 X 4 for drops is debatable(and may differ with each event as well). The 1 X 1 plots definitely DO help with CAC, since the increase is per plot, but not necessarily for drops.

 

Well my post is simply going to say.....YAY!! I finished this morning Now to decide between the fox or the bear and maybe I'll toss a few cookies to the penguin if I have leftovers Congrats to those who finished and don't give up for those still trying

 

Well done Julie!
I'm still trying.

 

@woody
There is no argument with anyone here. Commonsense tells me that when I reach a dead end I go another way and it's as simple as that.

Great discussion of the definition of randomness. Complete knowledge of its means is a prerequisite for this type of work a we both know. It's Stat I and reviewed in Research Methods 101 (regardless of field of study). We are clear I guarantee you. Because we are I cannot accept the following and continue:

You state that using longer stalls, etc does work. How is long measured and compared with another? Time! So with any type of research where does one begin, with a variable or a constant? You know the answer is a constant. (For discussion the only other constant is EP. I make and assumption and without research that time is included in the assignment of ep amount for a specific item. ) I agree that I will never be able to come up with a 100% accurate prediction model. (Get a laugh: As with the weatherman I must settle for close enough. And as with the weatherman who does this for a living everyday, I'll take the risk of being wrong and present my findings. Again as with the weatherman, I'll present my findings and if I say it will be real cold and one does not grab a jacket then ....... well ....... freeze.)

I searched several other forums for any discussion of predictability of drops and time. I found none or I would have respected and used their work. I located lots of results but with no consideration of variables which cause noise and therefore no use to me. For the masses in the game who even consider strategy, all that is desired from this time consuming effort is for it to be summarized in a single sentence and I know it. (One can only work on event drops during an event. Of course can work with sugar or salt, for example, at anytime. No effort put forth in that direction.

Yes, the algorithm may be changed by developers anytime. We both know that regardless of the specific algorithm they will not go too far though or they will create a problem for themselves ... (and that problem can go so far as to negatively affect the ability to generate revenue which is mandatory for any profit seeking organization.)

Good to know a little of your background. I'll contact you by igm seeking your review if my findings generate anything worthy of your consideration.

----edit---

Woody, hahahaha, I really like it when you say that if developers are worth their salt that they will ensure that I cannot "jimmy" the data in any real way. hahaha Ya know, that is probably a good idea because I sure will do it. hahaha And I'm not finished! hahaha

 

Meba....That why I posted to say that i was surprised to get more drops than the number of Comfort Fields I used it did not have any thing at all out outside of these Comfort Fields...what was more surprising i was getting more Drops without using any Howie Donuts

Yes I am Proved that I can get More Drops than Amount of Comfort Fields used....it is very Strange to Why ??? It is utterly pointless to fine explaination or other reasons this is so....My Summary of Randomness is just accept it it hardly any point to dwell on it unless Bigpoint really has the time to look into this !!!

Elisead My Posting about Howie Donut has a Chance of Up To 5% more on Drops the Randomness can often be negative or Positive outcomes as i have do many numerous Experiments to prove my findings the Using 1 Howie Donut have have outcomes Ranging from - 5 % to to + 5% per Howie Donut

Well Done Julie1013....I always try Old Methods or New Method to See which Methods is most Effective, also have to be most Practical Method i need to devise...

 

I finished this morning with the last of my candy canes. I mostly got EP/BEP and CC from the bears so I'm thinking I might use up my extra crops on the fox instead. Depends on how many more drops I get as I have no intention of growing anymore event plants.

 

@meba091

The strategy of using carrots instead of your us of wheat gave ......

• a total of 3 drops. Two harvests were done with two predicted as the outcome.

Each harvest yielded with the -1 and +1 range of prediction for model satisfaction.

CAC ran out here and not used. Results continue to confirm that CAC use has no effect on drops obtained. CAC adds to productive out of the crop.

Additionally, you harvested on time and I harvested each over 30 minutes late. Therefore, further support is supplied to the logic of harvesting on time. I would have received more drops overall during the time period if I simply would have harvested the same crop on time. Remember, we used different crops with the same time to completion ..... time, the constant again used in prediction method.

Strategy now is to sell in the market as I'm kinda broke ..... again

 

I'm celebrating again today!!! I've now been a farmer for a week, and still lovin' it Am now at level 37 and 14 on bahamarama. Got 2 field runes on the tree and the 3 statues for the island. Wow it sure is great having land!!

I just hit my goal for the event, got penguin done and lvl 1of bear... Have 5 extra bottles of mulled spice so another 15 and one more level...
Yeah, I'm hooked alright

Made over 200k selling chickens and poo. Thanks farmer_broke, the cc's helped so much!! Maybe I'll get 1m next time!!!

Now I have to change gears, learn about day to day farming and figure out a strategy for that... also reread the discussion about drops a time or 15.

Thanks to everyone for the advice and gifts. Couldn't have done it without you all!!

 

Hello Shiny.Sparkle!

Congratulations on your progress and working the event. And really thanks for joining us here. Lots of good people here and all over the forum. Try um if you find time

The discussion lately about drops is us going back and forth discussing nonsense. But there is some good stuff around and everyone will help you.

So you're growing "event junks" already ..... ((((( just shaking head in disbelief )))))

Congratulations again and I believe a lot of people will look for you around.

 

Humm... so maybe I shouldn't shoot for 128 chicken stables right away either

 

Shine.Sparkle, you may wish to check out the rumors for January. There may be some other animal pens you should put out in preparation.

 

You cannot go wrong with chickens, because they mature a lot faster than other pens and people buy them constantly because they make up Anaconda feed (rabbits, too). However, that only matters when you can be there to harvest right after maturation. If you are not going to be home by the computer, then you likely want to grow either longer running (higher EP) items or things you can sell for more CC. Also, you will get upgrades before too, too long (orange gives 2 of each animal, pink 3, Neon 4). The thing is you will never have room for more than 128. (unless they give us more space).

Also, as mentioned, review the grapevine. Things given there are not set in stone, but there are couple of pretty solid rumors out there now. A hint.. right after events are officially announced, the prices of required items tend to rise sharply. So.. it is good to be prepared. Also, there are different types of events.

Per the drop discussion... the longer the pen/workshop/tree/crop, the more drops you can generally expect, but beyond that -- there is always a lot of debate (as you no doubt see )

Are you saying that time is a constant here? I would say not.. neither is EP. (though perhaps I should have clarified that I mean time to maturation).

Lorenzo... Lorenzo.

Likely they are very related. But.... no more school (lol)]

 

Woody I just love your explanation! Maybe you can figure out the random of my understanding!? Using my wine drinking as a variety on how much I make out of it lol not must I guess but I love it I love getting concrete examples! Wish i understood it better... Maybe tomorrow my brain will function??!! Hope is still there I guess.... but I am only a Danish teacher! I will dream of spacemen tonight!!! lol BTW who is Lorenzo???

Farmer_broke 30 minutes late??? How could you? I thought we were doing scientific experiments here??? And you are supposed to be the wiz!!! Oh my! I worked my ~edit~ out yesterday!! Growing that stupid wheat....and not getting any drops worth the effort!!! Hmm.... I am glad you made it though! and kinda enjoying you being broke cuzz I am too don't know where all the ccs went....I sold sooo much wheat...can't believe it...
and psst broke I don't think you need any salt with that self-confidence hahaha maybe some sugar will do

nahh tell me what to grow next! I will do it! Anything for your scientific experiments! Just be on time, okay? lol

Mooboy Thank you for the clarification!

I find it very strange that you received more than one drop from each plot!


I don't know how many bears i fed in addition to the event....but I have received 1 Draco stable, 2 Tortuga Trees, 2 Mekong, 4 GB, 2 Tool boxes, 1 additional item of each, a lot of pf, bep, ep and cc (think that will be payed out one of the next days as it is not there...haha) and a lot of ppp.

Good luck to those still working on it!

 

@woody
Ok label it time to maturation. That amount is set for every item one can grow or produce in this game. Still, there is only variable which I cannot control or eliminate or remove the effects of in order to develop a base rate: Trophies.

@meba091
Nope didn't harvest on time....LOL ..... I only needed two drops. I was not concerned with saving time to get more and more and more drops or carrots. Every single time you planted three fields full you got within -1 to +1 of my expectation of 1 drop. No need to hurry hurry. What did I have, 40 hours or something ...... hahahaha.

I was so confident in what we had done together that all I expected to need was 20 minutes minimum and the maximum 30 minutes. hahahaha

I didn't even use water or I would have received the same number each time but faster. hahahaha

Slow dooooooooooown ..... or life's going to pass you byeeeeeee

Hey, this is "junks growing" stuff and not too serious to me.

Nahhhhh, not really flat broke today ..... yet ...... Lookin at 205 million coins now and ready to go on a shopping spree. Simply ridiculous. I'll be soon.

 

Finished! So happy to be done. I've still got event plants in the barn to use up prior to the end of the event with whatever drops I get. I'm still putting out long term crops but more because I need the crop and less to get the drop.

Good luck to all those still working on it.

 

I earned my cloud row yesterday but because I wanted to "feed" more foxes (where I got good results), I've had to feed 60 more penguins. Really bad results on those penguins but I have now completed the entire event. I'll feed foxes until I use up as much as possible of the event stuff or until the prizes fizzle out. I didn't tear apart my farm to do this event. I only switched from 2x2s to 1x1s to get maximum event crops. I did run CAC and did the usual to maximize event crops on 2x2s until I had enough for 1x1s. I kept trees and pens out which helped with drops and manure. I grew longer crops overnight and I only started to get ahead of my drops late yesterday.

Good luck to all still working on finishing!

 

Done with event and am glad, didn't have much extra event crops so on to other things

 

Finished! Will use up the leftover event crops and bottles to get some extra prizes while getting back to regular farming. Good luck to those still at work!

 

I finally finished Family has left, peace and quiet.. time to farm. They just couldn't understand my need to farm
Congratulations to those who have finished and Good luck to everyone else.

 

Crawling to the finish line on chocolate chip biccies ...

Happy Christmas to all, and thanks to all the wonderful farmers who helped me.