Chestnut Festival Strategy

Yes, I have re-evaluated and will be doing level 1. Thanks for the comments!
I am less certain about level 2, partly because the award is not so "thrilling" to me.

one note... I planned to skip in part because I had family holiday issues that I thought would involve more time.

 

In the ccs thread I respond to Solotime who appeared to be faced with the same dilemma this year as I was last year. My actual experience and thoughts a year ago are disclosed as well as what was used before even deciding to try and develop a strategy.

Solotime and I both discuss issues relevant to each of us. I recommend it.

Last year this time I began to casually read anything related to the event. Chat was filled with all sorts of good information and garbage. I did not understand or appreciate much of it. Today, I would have read everything possible.

At the moment the farmer_broke farm is number 10. It has dropped from its high of number 7.

My strategy development for this event will be presented following another's reply to this thread. Having a calculator handy to check my calculations would be nice when that post arrives. Having a pencil and paper is asking a bit much. A sticky is worthless at this time.

To Advanced players:

Thoughts, a few ccs, and much more barn stock this farm has to donate to the current event. I have more decisions to make. Now I divide the playground into two groups: upper-class 500 and lower-class 500. I have already arrogantly decided I will not be the En Forum family member to play with the lower class 500, done that. I don't know how much I want to play further with even the other elite 9 in the competition on this playground.

The ballpark of the Top 10 farmers in the game is one I am beginning to consider visiting. Today I am not prepared to play or even humbly beg for seven coaches to take me under their wing. I now must regard the current event as only a quick sparring match. However, it is the intent of my actions to send the message clearly: farmer_broke, a member of The En Forum Family, is creatively engaging in self-training.

If the day arrives when I would not waste other's time with my foolishness, then three of the seven I would beg for coaching would be: Aluntino, Mooboy, and SuzeeRabbit. At this point I know to give respect to the ideas of any and all En Forum family members.

 

​

My contribution to Top 1000: The free sunchoke seeds I get every 5 hours

Somehow, I don't think I will make it into the list at this rate

 

farmer_broke is level 83 with Bahamarama level 143

Step 1 -- gathered easy information
On the back of a box listed about 15 cheap tree fruit. (here I list all I can now see at this level in order appearing on all markets by level)
Next to each wrote the exchange rate (that rate is fixed and can be used by anyone later)
Next wrote the market price next to that (waited until January, just convenient to do so) MUST use your market's price
Next took 2nd number divide by 1st number
Next move decimal to the right 2 places (to get %)
Picked the lowest % of that column which now is 33.19% for Jacote
Would use 33.19% as my buy % rate
Next take .3319 and multiply column 1 (Look at Apples and Jacote only for now)
Rounded up to nearest whole cc (Look at Apple and Jacote only) <------this is my highest buy price
Did the same for as many tree fruit as I could write on a sticky <------this was the absolute most I would pay for any tree fruit

No table was prepared (yes yes yes a little on spreadsheet later but did not do and not a must) Intentionally presented poorly below. One must be active to set it up ... thereafter the buying is routine.

Farm Tree Fruit

• Apples 60 24.00 0.40 40% 19.91cc 20cc
• Samara 125
• Loquat 125 533.24
• Medlar berry 125
• Sakura Blossom 125
• Pine Nuts 115 57.00
• Strawberry Tree Fruit 125
• Apricot 95 35.00 .3684 36.84%
• Beechnut 115
• Chestnuts 135 48 .3556 35.566%
• Christmas Tree Ornaments 100
• Elderberry 120
• Gingko 90
• Gold Leaf 135 42.94
• Lemon 80 29.00
• Magnolias 80
• Mirabelle Plums 75
• Peaches 130 44
• Rowan Berry 125 42.00
• Walnuts 70 23.59
• Plums 90 33.99
• Mulberry 105
• Pears 120 49.5
• Cherry 125 42.95
• Acorn 127.50
• Orange 130 48.99
• Angel's Trumpets 132.50
• Yellow Pears 135 49.90
• Dates 140
• Pine Cones 145
• Olives 150
• Almonds 160 52.39
• Maple Sap 170 66.87 .3933 39.33%

Baha Tree Fruit

• 
  
• Pomegranate 105
• Pistachio 130
• Star Fruit 100
• Brazil Nut 125
• Bananas 60 61.20
• Mandarin 105
• Mangoes 120 78.04
• Coconuts 90
• Fig 130
• Kiwi 140
• Dragon Fruit 150
• Guava 180
• Cocoa Beans 200 70.00 .35 35%
• Avocado 220 74.10
• Papaya 240 78.21
• Kumquats 260
• Lychees 280 95.00 .3393 33.93%
• Jocote Fruit 300 99.56 .3319 33.19% 99.57cc 100cc
• Carob Pods 105
• Buddha's Hand Fruit 105 579.99 5.5327 553.27%
• Poinsiana 105 70.00

The actual buy % used for each tree fruit on this same market was 22.67% These percentages today are much much much too high for me to buy for this purpose. This is why one is throwing away ccs if one does not prepare adequately. I made the choice not to throw them away in buying but to throw them away when playing on the playground. And even then much less.

One more post later and any question can be answered or statement addressed. Any errors in computation I hope to edit (yes yes spreadsheets prevent that but not necessary because this computation was only done once for at most 30 tree fruit)

Please be hard on this approach if you wish. This is 80% of the strategy used, wrong or right. 20% more to come later today.

 

The Lowest Donation in Top 1000 now stands at 40 Million Exchange Value as it still just over two more days until Festival Event Ends...

As I mentioned in my earlier or other postings that Fruits is way forward for this kind of Event....

Apples Cost Roughly 20 CC to Buy in the Markets but have Exchange Value of 60 it terms of Exchange Value if you use Formula of

1 CC = 1 EV ...Eg Apples.....Therefore you would use EV / CC ....60/20= 3 EV

Apples 1 CC= 1 EV after conversion Based on Market Brought Price is now 1 CC spend is worth 3 EV Each

Jocote Cost Roughly 100 CC to Buy in the Markets but have Exchange Value of 300 it terms of Exchange Value if you use Formula of

1 CC = 1 EV ...Eg Jocote.....Therefore you would use EV / CC ....300/100= 3 EV

Jocote 1 CC= 1 EV after conversion Based on Market Brought Price is now 1 CC spend is worth 3 EV Each


You can use the Same Formula on Any Fruit Trees...But used Market Brought Fruit Price into this Formula....But The EV Conversion Value varies to Each Fruit and Market Brought Price

The Rare Fruits tends to have a Lower EV Exchange Value due to shortage of Rare Fruits in Current Markets Compared with Normal Common Fruit Trees. Which can be easily Regrown/Restocked compared number of Rare Trees in Farmers Barn

If you are Stocking up Fruits for Next Year Festival do not buy Fruits that have inflated Prices during this event, which will fall back to it Realistic Market Valuation....such as Island Fruits or Fruits that are not used for Crafting.

Apples are always safe to buy and stock up as there is always abundance of them in the Markets, Plus at 20 CC it not really Budge in Prices very much before....during ...after this Event...

I always Buy Fruits that have the Best EV Exchange Value pending on current market prices weather i am going to used them to donate into Top 1000.... Currently not to stock up Fruits for Next Year, as Most of Them will Drop in Value Once the Festival Event had Ended....

I Have Persimmon and Mate Trees Unlocked on the Island

• PERSIMMON 320
• MATE 340

The Best Rare Trees to have are Chestnut Trees They only Take 12 Hours to Grow...if any of you still have them as they are worth getting at Barter and Gift Event as you no longer can buy or win Chestnut Tree....Since this is Chestnut Festival I would have though they would chuck in Some Chestnut Trees for us as I have 14 of These in my barn

 

Chestnut trees are available for sale in the shop for 60 BB. Half price sale would make them 30 BB. Kind of expensive when you consider that secret seedlings are 5 BB for trees but I have bought 6 secret saplings before (30 BB) hoping to get a new/rare tree so when put in that perspective...30 BB for a 100% guarantee you get the tree you are aiming for vs. the random chance for SS.

I agree Mooboy, best place to find them is G/T.

I finished the event yesterday and grew crops while CAC was still active. Today, I have covered the entire farm in trees so I can enjoy the holiday with family and let my farm tend to itself.

Good luck to those still working!
Good luck to those in top 1000! I am rooting for you!
Happy Thanksgiving!

 

Mooboy,

I see. Your computation provides one a cost per unit of exchange. Yes, eventually each of our methods will produce the same results. My first thought is I cannot grow all I needed so I had to buy.
The method I used caused me to use exchange value a single time for each tree fruit, set a max price, put on a sticky that max price and be done for 11 months.
I slowly began to remember the max prices and rarely even used the sticky as it became so routine. No each time conversion thought as the method you present, no nothing. I kick back and work or watch a movie or ball game.

Looking at present prices, all exceed by buy price and I know better for sure. The market to exchange % or cc paid per exchange point is so so so close for so many of the tree fruit that one may just about throw ccs away buying most of them. An extreme fruit who be Buddha's Hand for instance. Yes, another is apples. But the rate is slowly becoming more competitive but not yet. The example above gives the actual market prices on my market, I had been using a much lower buy rate that I could afford with the lower the rate the better and slower I could acquire at anytime.

Three weeks ago and the same tree fruit I was able to buy for months became less and less available. Remember I was always broke anyway ... on the surface. Now the numbers tell me: You're already going to overpay your assigned rate if you buy now and the rates are so close that you as well buy any of the you fool. Mooboy I would not buy a single tree fruit for this event based on setting a rate and buy price.

You present the exchange for Persimmon and Mate. All of us can find that if we read. BUT All of us cannot buy it if not at that level. I for one could not even think about it. Sap was easy for a long time, Oranges for a limited amount of time and cherry was good right up to the event start as well as sever Baha fruit.

I'm going to try your method on a level 62 farm in mid January for a while. I think it is more work but I want to try it.

Questions. Do you think the method you provide is easier? Think I could buy faster? Do I have to think much?
The part of the strategy I used may appear difficult but so easy I feel stupid using it.
My method I am finished glancing at and buying all tree fruit in about ..... 30 seconds per market visit max.
I don't even think.

Your method is a good alternative ... think it is better?

@puppiesnponies
Thanks puppies and happy holidays to you too. I'm doing the same with RL family and will care less about the farm and 1000. Oh yes, priorities set based upon no computations or thought either.

 

With 44 hours left of the event.

I believe it might reach around 70 to 80 million for top 1K.
But with the very last hours left, it should take off crazy and prices should go up pretty high.
Last night some guy bought nearly ever Maple Sap on my market!
After that, the prices are now dropping down again. But that shows you, the amount will rise
around the end.

IF I'm wrong and no more people want to play against the top 1K, I'll be shocked.

It would cost around 640,000 Maple Saps to complete against them.

 

Mooboy - Thank you for your explanation of the CC/EV conversion!!!!! 1cc = 1ev......I was too embarrassed to ask how this worked!!! Your example with apples makes perfect sense.

I am a person who is NOT comfortable with math so it makes me dislike mathmatical calculations. It's kind of like my brain shuts down when people discuss equations! LOL
Congrats on opening Persimmon and Mate trees!!!!

 

If one were buying 640,000 maple sap at say 90cc each today then that is 57,600,000 ccs. Not likely to get that many either and will be throwing ccs to anybody. Up to them. That is an example of lack of preparedness to pay efficiently and it is costly and is overpaying to me. My decision was to watch, listen, read, and wait.

If one understand how the above rates were determined and converted in a price then the strategy was easier than that:

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Waited until January
I had heard Maple sap was good to use and did not know exactly why.
Went to the market and looked at price. How much would I pay to most. 38.54 which was the lowest for it at the time
market price divided by exchange
38.54 / 170 is .2267 or 22.67 % and this was my beginning buy rate!
my own buy rate multiplies times the game set exchange rate is
22.67% times 170 is 38.53
I round up to nearest whole cc and got 39. the most I would ever pay for Maple Sap

at top of sticky wrote 22.67% (I picked this rate and wanted it low but still be able to buy a little at a time)

Wrote Sap 39

Did exactly the same for Cherry and got 29

Wrote Cherry 29

And did this on and on for a while and before long my sticky got full

The price determined as my buy price did not mean I had to buy.
I choose
Why pay 29 for a cherry when I can find it for 22.
Whenever I went to the game and had cc I would buy
No more than I was willing to pay anyway

No thinking anymore...
my buy rate times exchange rate then round up and that was my max buy price.

All was being thrown away anyway. (Or so I thought and now know wrong thinking)

tree fruit buying went on and on for 11 months at no higher than my rate set.
some days with ccs I could buy a lot
some days with no ccs I was broke again (so why try to be flat broke? hahahaha)
Quantity did not matter
as it was determined by my buy rate
where the set exchange value was used
and a reasonable market price was used in setting it.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Easy Easy and steady and solid and slow and defendable, no spread sheet

If one sees the above 80% of the strategy and single most expensive part then the next part is easier than that.

@Brookeham

Noooooooooooooooooooooo! 1 CC does not equal 1 EV point Noooooooooo! That makes No Sense

Mooboy can't defend that as right...............Noooooooo Way

Mooboy would never bring that out. Now I really want to wait and see what Mooboy has to say.

Guess who unknowingly influenced me to choose Maple Sap as my guide? None other than Mooboy. Thanks Mooboy! (And this is an example of obtained in Chat and in the En Forum from family members) This family helped me a year ago and for an entire year!

But 3 months into doing it, I wish I had used cherry as my base. So I just bought more Cherry Cheaper.

I really want to see how Mooboy will clarify.

 

Brooke,

What you understood as 1 CC = 1 EV above is nothing different than the inversion of the CCs/ExV ratio I explained the other day.

Just to clarify it for you by using again my maple sap example of the other day: the CCs/ExV ratio I calculated there was 0,15, which translates into 6,67 in the way Ajjg puts it: in other words, that you'll get 6,67 ExVs per CC you spend in maple sap bought at 25,5 CCs each, more than that if paid at an even lower price. In Ajjg's example with the apple, you're getting 3 ExVs per CC spent on apples bought at 20 CCs each.

It's neither easier nor more difficult. Both ways would work if you understand how to use them. The CCs/ExV ratio is also what farmer_broke uses above to set the prices he pays. At least for me, it makes easier to know what's the maximum I'm willing to pay for each product I may decide to include in my next TopX00X hoarding list.

By the way, but I guess you've already understood this, the highest the CCs/ExV ratio you may find, the product that shows it is not for buying but for producing towards hoarding for next TopX00X, whatever it is.

 

I thought I was following along, but I am going to go very slowly now for my own brain and restate something here that seems very clear, and must be, but I must confirm I understand Aluntino and broke correctly.

Lowest CC to EV ratio is best for buying; highest CC to EV ratio (of anything at all on the market, insert a fruit in this instance), would be better grown/produced, instead of bought, if trying to amass quantities for donating. I understand you are discussing top whatevers, but this principle would also work for any "donation" type event or quest...yes?

Do I understand? It makes sense, and there probably should be no mystery, but for whatever reason there gets to be too much text and I just -blank-space-blank out. I do better with pictures and sometimes get lost in translation.

 

HI Fellow Farmers....

I used a very simple Template Formula 1 CC = 1 EV to help those who not good at Maths to explain it in the most simple way possible....Just to Point out This is a Conversation Formula to work out Exchange Value on Anything you buy from the Markets

Each Crop, fruits, Animals etc have a Fixed Exchanged Value ?? CC is the Variable Market Brought Price = 1 EV ( Is the Fixed Exchange Value)

Here is Another Example...

Almonds have an Exchange Value of 160........Lemons have Exchange Value of 80....Therefore

2 x Lemons = 1 Almond....Both Have Exchange Total of 160, but the Current Brought Market Price....

2 x Lemons cost 24 CC each = 48 CC for 160 Worth Exchange Value

1 Almond cost 57 CC each = 57 CC for 160 Worth Exchange Value....Therefore it is cheaper to buy Lemons rather than buying Almonds

1 Persimmon cost 157 CC = 157 CC for 320 Worth Exchange Value as Persimmon has Twice the Exchange Value of Almonds But 4 Times Exchange Value of Lemons

4 x Lemons = 1 Persimmon (Both have Exchange Total of 320)...But it is still cheaper to buy 4 Lemons at 24CC Each than buying 1 Persimmon ....I Hope this Make Sense .....This is on the Basis of my Current Market Prices....Other markets may vary...!!!

Usually the Highest Farm Fruit Exchange Value is Maple Sap, My Highest Island Fruit is MItate....It is not always the case they sell for More CC compared to other Fruits in Terms of Exchange Values.

If you have been hoarding thousands of Fruits over the duration of the year where Exchange Value has no preference to any Event Except for Festival Only Event......You would be in a position to make huge donations for whole lot less such as 640,000 maples for about under 20 Million CC.......

Buying Fruits at Current Markets Prices and Donating Them into Top 1000 is just very risking and very very expensive, as most of Fruit Prices have gone Through the Roof in the Markets.

It is always best to Buy fruits that are not in Demand as there quiet a few of them. The New Rare Fruits are always pricey to buy in the Markets, these to avoid for time being...

 

Correct, heidels. That's exactly the way I defined which bred animals to donate in current event: the ones showing the lowest CCs/ExV ratio. And, at the same time, it helped me define which ones were best to sell in order to "fund" the donations I made: I sold -am still selling- the most of those showing the highest CCs/ExV ratios.

However, for producing, be careful. You must add the space/time usage dimension. One clear -I think- example: sea grapes have an ExV of 380 and are currently sold in my mkt at 190 CCs each --> CCs/ExV = 0,5; bananas, that take exactly the same space for exactly the same time, have an ExV of 60 and are currently sold in my mkt at 60 CCs each --> CCs/ExV = 1. Which one will you prefer to place in the Island, for TopX00X hoarding purposes, the sea grape tree or the banana palm? Obviously, the sea grape tree because, in absolute terms, it yields 19*4 ExVs/plot-hr whereas the banana palm yields 3*4 ExVs/plot-hr.

What I meant is that the highest CCs/ExV ratios (I should have said higher) are a quick guide to decide what to produce instead of buying, provided you have plenty of offers at a low CCs/ExV ratio, like maple saps at 0,15, 25,5 CCs each, or at lower prices. To produce what? For instance, other things with high absolute ExV/plot-hr, like roses.....

Is it clearer?

The other way of seeing it is: you produce things with the highest CCs/ExV ratios, sell them, and buy the things with the lowest CCs/ExV ratios with the proceeds of those sales; thus, you'll multiply your capacity of amassing ExV through your production practices. <---- WRONG STATEMENT: see Mir's objections and my own summary below.

 

I would like to stress something:

There is a difference between producing for sale, and producing for hoarding until next donation event:

• If you are producing for sale, don't consider exchange value at all, just think profit per time per field (roses are horrible to grow for sale).
• If you are hoarding until next donation event, consider exchange value per time per field (now roses are perfectly fine).

 

100% in agreement, Mir.

The intersection of both worlds (production for sale vs. production for hoarding for next TopX00X) is summarized in the remark I highlighted in red in my response to heidels above, actually aimed at maximizing CCs output from your farm to get the most ExV from purchases in mkt.

However, for enacting that intersection, someone must calculate many CCs/ExV ratios.

TWO PRECEDING PARAGRAPHS ARE WRONG: see Mir's objections and my own new summary below.

What you summarized is a quick general rule that may very well work for most as a guide. Refinement of that guide requires finer calculations on many items.

 

I am sorry, I don't understand this I would think that production time has to be a factor here as well.

 

You are absolutely right, Mir. Production time is also a factor as space usage is. That's what I tried to also convey in my response to heidels with the banana vs. sea grape example. I'll edit right away both my posts above.

The point I'm trying to make -I'm aware it's rather confusing above- can be summarized as follows and coincides exactly with what you are rightly saying:
* the simplest way to hoard for next TopX00X is through buying in mkt whatever can be donated that shows the lowest possible CCs/ExV ratio at any time; that's the way I'll use if I decide to hoard for that;
* of course, purchases are to be made with CCs; this means whatever is more profitable to produce for sale per plot-hr (space-time dimension) is better to produce over anything else; this is in fact what I always do with everything all the time all along the whole year; profit maximization is the means to get the most from the farm for whatever goal.

Additionally, though:
* production or sale of items with high CCs/ExV is not necessarily the best way of achieving these two previous statements (but it sometimes is, only when comparing items of the same category for a specific purpose, not the overall TopX00X thing, like in the case of bred animals for this event: too complex, that's why I'll edit my posts above).

 

Yes, now I understand what you mean

 

Mir,

One of the things I appreciate the most in people when discussing/analyzing anything is the capacity to always keep one's own critical thinking. That's the way mistakes are spotted and opens the means to correct them. And you have relentless critical thinking -I consider we are alike in this sense-: my compliments for that because I think it's a really good characteristic.